Well, we barely got started before this uncomfortable unwanted break from everything came. The changes I wrote about in my last post has given the portfolio a kind of upswing, so that looks promising going forward.
January was still kind of a bad beat so a few more months are probably needed to get back in black. Fingers crossed it doesn’t take too many months before we even get the chance.
Here are the numbers for 2020 so far. Take care out there.
It was a strange year betting wise, a year that is a bit hard to draw any bigger conclusions from. I made some costly mistakes, I also made a lot of money before I eventually lost them again.
The whole year ended just below break-even and considering the time I’ve put in to register the 3903 bets during the year, it was a lousy hourly rate.
As you can see in the graph below (which is fetched automatically from Bettin.gs by the way), the first quarter of the year made almost all of the profits while the rest of the year was a struggle.
What went right?
Well, hats off to two of my long time fighters Nishi Kori and On The Oche, who managed to end up on +7.6% and +4.6% ROI respectively. While for OTO that’s actually a bit below the expected level, it’s nice to see them both in profit for another year. 312 units in from Nishi and 29.6 units from On The Oche.
It’s also nice to see two newcomers deliver instantly. DD Pronostics sits at a +7.3% ROI from his first 286 bets and motaliz is at +5.6% ROI after he was added late in 2019, so just 42 bets from him so far.
What went wrong?
Quite a few things to be honest. I made two huge mistakes that are two key takeaways from 2019:
I jumped on the The Betting Man bandwagon without properly tracking and analyzing his bets personally.
I invested too much in Clear Data Sports baseball bets after one season of trialing the service, but without doing it thoroughly enough.
When it comes to The Betting Man, I made the rookie mistake to trial it for a couple of months, then getting right on board after what probably was a hot streak and then paying the price when his picks returned to normal levels, which seem to be losing ones. I stopped following his bets in October and was down -83.3 units (-4.2% ROI). According to RacingProofing.com he might be on his way back, but I don’t feel comfortable following his tips and that’s a good enough reason for me to get off.
For Clear Data Sports, the amount of bets that was produced was enormous. In hindsight it’s a bit hard to believe they can actually find so many weaknesses in one of the betting world’s toughest markets, but in in fact the service’s official numbers made a couple of units profit for the year eventually. My problem was that I didn’t quite catch the recommended odds at all bets and with a high volume service like that, that shows on the bottom line: -94.6 units (-7.8% ROI). I followed from the season started in March until June, just before the all-star break and I’m still following the service, but struggling to find a best way to take advantage of it.
2019 in numbers
I placed 3906 bets, so just above 10 a day. This will decrease in 2020 since I don’t place horse racing or baseball bets anymore.
2162 of the bets has been placed with Sportmarket and 1335 with Betfair. A very small amount of the bets were placed with soft bookies, particularly darts bets and a sporadic double.
The average odds ended at 12.54, but is just a bit inflated by the golf picks and will be reduce a bit in 2020 without the horse racing. Unless I find another golf tipster of course…
The strike rate of 36.4% will logically increase a bit as well.
Of all the bets that I’ve registered closing odds for, I beat 54.1% of them. I don’t have a target, but I aim much higher that this.
A tough time for horse racing?
It seemed like many of the tipsters had a rough year and when listening to other punters if seems like they weren’t the only ones. Especially horse racing tipsters with a positive result for 2019 seems hard to find and the only one I followed during 2019, Festival Value Service, ended -35 units (-4.1% ROI). I won’t keep it in the portfolio going forward, which leaves me totally empty from horse racing tipsters for the first time in a long while. I do have a few bew services on my radar, but I honestly can’t see myself following any of them any time soon.
Master Racing Tipster was also with me for 129 bets in 2019 before suddenly closing shops. He was then down -41.2 units (-9.7% ROI), so good riddance I guess, but sad to see him go after several fine years in the portfolio.
Better football times are coming?
My portfolio has turned quite football heavy lately, which I don’t mind since that’s the sport I know the most about numbers and bettingwise. In 2019 I started following BetNimble and while they ended -25 units (-3.5% ROI), they usually crush the closing odds, which make me feel comfortable having them in the portfolio for 2020 as well.
Fut Unver actually had a losing year and I’m really interested to see what 2020 brings there. He has a solid history, but without beating the closing line much of the time. Fingers crossed.
Winabobatoo marches on without making much noise. -15.7 units (-12.5% ROI) from just 31 bets in 2019 and then there’s also Football Elite‘s season bets that will be settled come spring time. (We’re on a nice bet in February as well with Leicester to win the English league cup, so it could show something already in February, jinx, jinx).
When it comes to Scottish Football Bets, I’m not so sure though. His betting style with low odds and multiples doesn’t really fit me and while his long analyses are sometimes interesting, I can’t really be bothered with 1500 words on a 1.4 odds selection. We’ll see. As long as he’s profitable, it’s probably worth it. He was -16.4 units (-1.4% ROI) in 2019 though.
Just a quick mention of Pro Footy Tips as well, who managed to provide 31 tips with lousy results (-61.2 units, -59% ROI) after switching to another platform and then disappearing again. No recommended behaviour.
More golfers to be added?
My only golf tipster, Golf Betting Expert, had a dispute with his partners at Betting Gods which made him go solo. Those kind of things can never be good I think, but I still follow his service despite that and the fact that he was -20.2 units (-2.3% ROI) last year.
I am looking to add another golfer though, since I see both potential and have a big interest in following the sport. The trouble, as always, is to find a reliable, profitable service to follow though. I have a few candidates lined up, so to be continued…
Here’s a total summary for all tipsters that I followed in 2019. A year that will probably be beaten by 2020 by a margin if everything goes as planned.
The portfolio in 2020
Going into 2020, here’s what the portfolio looks like in it’s full glory. Good luck to us!
Nope, it wasn’t meant to be this month either. It was looking good for the most of the month, but a poor last weekend pulled me down below zero, so a few units lost again. My betting bank is well prepared for drawdowns, but it’s quite annoying to keep spending all this time for nothing.
In total I placed 308 bets, staking 1210 units. With a strike rate of 33.4% the return on capital was -3.3%.
Let’s go through the tipsters one by one this time and see how it went.
You can see an overview of all tipsters in the portfolio on the portfolio page.
The most active service in the portfolio this month is fighting hi way back from the red. A nice profit makes me feel a little better about the service, which has been a disappointment so far, to say the least. Still down 84.4 units since he was included in the portfolio.
A little rough start to the season for this veteran tipster even if the month started out well. He had a few really poor days after that, which left a mark this month. Nothing much to worry about, these things happen. I do appreciate his emails coming in explaining why things went wrong and his plan to avoid it going forward. Not all tipsters do this, but it really helps keeping faith when things don’t go exactly to plan.
Now here’s a bad run that just won’t give up. Another 40 units down the drain as GBE’s failed to find a winner in months. A few places has kept the results up, but we’re in desperate need for a winner to get back on track here. Long term profit still shows >10% ROI though, so no reason to draw too big conclusions.
Mike Lorenzo-Vera finishing one stroke behind the winner but still placing outside the money last weekend sums the current trend up pretty well.
The first month in the portfolio and it’s a blood red one. Not the start I hoped for naturally. What’s interesting though is that almost every bet has crushed the market. 73% of all bets where better than the closing odds by a margin, so still high hopes for this service. Fortunately, the season is long.
Good old darts tipster On The Oche keeps delivering the profits. Almost 20 units from just 14 bets makes me wish there were more darts matches in the world. A quite alarming thing though is that I’ve been limited from two of the bookies that I’ve used to place many of the dart bets, which will make it harder for me to find the best odds.
All in all, a couple of tipsters had a rough month while other had decent ones. Nothing really stands out on the positive side, so the month ends in red and we’re aiming for profits in September instead.
In other news
September means the start of tips from both Futunver and Winabobatoo, so we’ll get to see more bets from now until spring, and with that hopefully less variance. Good luck to me!
Nope, my portfolio can’t catch a break for the moment. June was down another 91 units and the profits from March has been more or less been erased. This time The Betting Man started his recovery while all other tipsters showed losses.
It’s frustrating, annoying and outright boring to keep placing all these bets, just waiting for the trends to turn. I’ve been doing this long enough to know that it will turn but it’s a lot of work for nothing while the downturn lasts.
Not much more to say really. For once it was nice to have some racing tipsters in the portfolio. Golf Betting Tipster had a losing month, but all it takes is one winner from him to turn the entire portfolio result around. It’s a weird sport to follow like that. Big winners, but far between.
Trade On Sports hasn’t had a great start since his entry to the portfolio, but I like the setup of the service and I’ve started to follow their football bets as well from July.
I’ve also adjusted the staking for both Nishi Kori and Fut Unver down a bit to balance the portfolio a little better.
On The Oche also showed red numbers, and that’s not often. When it rains, it pours…
I expect July and August to be quite slow months before all action breaks loose in September, but I’ll add a few football tipsters already for July, as I’ve already decided to add them and they’re betting a bit on friendly games and other games that are on during the summer.
Once the seasons get underway I expect more action and with a few new tipsters, there will be more volume and if everything goes as it should, less volatility. Until then, let’s enjoy the summer.
Well, the horrific downturn from April continued a bit into May and that dragged down the results to show a second red month in a row. Two heavy weight tipster was to blame, namely Fut Unver and The Betting Man.
When any of the most active tipsters stands out, either positively or negatively, it’s bound to have an effect on the result. This is of course intentional, since these tipsters are meant to be the most reliable in the portfolio so I want to take advantage of them the best way possible, but it also begs the question wether they’re too heavy relied on.
When thy hit an inevitable losing streak, or if a couple of them do it at the same time, heaven forbid, there’s not much chance for all other tipsters to cover up for their losses. This is a lesson learned, especially since Nishi Kori just hit 12 losers in a row in the beginning of June as well. I will probably adjust the staking plan to make the portfolio less vulnerable in the future, but I’ll write more about that in another post.
I should probably write more about my staking and bank management in general, if anyone’s interested?
Here are the results per tipster for May 2019:
Thankfully Nishi Kori could make up for parts of the losses from Fut Unver and The Betting Man.
I decided to stop following Clear Data Sport after showing no signs of recovery. Time will tell wether that was a wise decision or not, but it was just way too time consuming and with too poor results. Sure, the season is long and they consistently beat the closing line, but my gut feeling tells me they’re on the wrong track and I’ve come to trust my gut feeling pretty well with time. Lesson learned: You can’t paper trade a service too little, and sometimes paper trading isn’t enough. I should have put more effort into real bets for a longer period of time last season.
Speaking of gut feeling – I stopped following Master Racing Tipster a while ago and sure enough a couple of months later he threw in the towel and quit his service. A long running service in my portfolio gone, which just once more shows how hard it is to make profit over time in this strange business.
I’m looking forward to the next season and I will probably up the stakes for DD Pronostics after a decent first basketball season. Not sure how to do with the horse racing tipsters, but a rather strong finish of the year is needed to stay in the portfolio. I’ve also got a number of football tipsters lined up, but I’m not sure which ones that will go straight in the portfolio and which ones will stay on trial for another while.
That will be after the summer though. Until then, we will mostly focus on tennis and horse racing, with a little darts and golf on top. Doesn’t sound too bad, does it?
Well, the betting gods, or variance, or karma, or whatever you may call it sure took back some of the glory from March. Most tipsters failed to make a profit and it was never really close to being a profitable month.
554 bets is a lot. Almost half of them are baseball bets. Almost half of the losses came there as well, so it’s safe to say we’re not really off to a flying start of the season when it comes to baseball.
Clear Data Sports, who are the ones delivering the baseball tips, were down 57,4 units. The new service Trade On Sports were down 23,1 units and Master Racing Tipster kept losing so much that I finally gave up on him after another 30 units lost. That service is no longer left in the portfolio. It seems I went out just in time, as the losses kept coming for the rest of the month as well. Perhaps he’ll come back to the line up someday, we’ll see. It’s the longest followed service in the portfolio, so quite sad to see him go.
When it comes to Clear Data Sports, I’m gonna have a close look on the numbers the upcoming month. I’ve got a bank of 100 units assigned to the service and I will use that as a stop loss limit. Should the losses keep coming in the same pace, there is probably no reason I should continue following. It’s a very labour intensive service to follow.
As you know, I’m finding it very frustrating every time I see losses accumulating from horse racing, and this month this was the case. April would be nicer without it, but then again the losses will be long forgotten as soon as the numbers turn green again.
There must be som curse for me when it comes to Betfair. I need to look in to history to see how bad it actually is compared to other bookies. Sometimes the bets feel lost beforehand, knowing it’s Betfair I use to place them. 😉
What a month. Most pieces fell into place at the same time and as a result the numbers are better than average.
379 bets and 1816 units placed is pretty much what I’m looking for every month, so to get a +18,9% ROI from that is nice once in a while. I’m looking for about +5-7% ROI in the long run.
I’ve been starting to track the closing odds for every bet I place as well, and it’s nice to see that the ROI for that is bit lower (+13%), even if it looks like I’ve only managed to beat the closing line 46,3% of the times. Obviously, I’ve beaten them when the bet’s won and less often for the lost ones. Also a good sign, I reckon.
Almost all tipsters was profitable. Nishi Kori and Fut Unver did it like it’s business as usual, while Festival Value Service had a couple of great weekends, just like Golf Betting Expert, who got two winners in the same month and loads of profit as the numbers below shows.
My latest addition to the portfolio, The Betting Man, is off to a slow start unfortunately. Hoping for a better month in March for him. Master Racing Tipster is still struggling and I’ve actually lowered the stakes for him from March. That’s probably saved me a few units, and I’m still not convinced he’ll ever bounce back to be honest.
From April, I’m adding Trade on Sports to the portfolio. I’m planning to start following their lay bets in tennis to start with and continue monitoring the other sports they’re offering to see if there’s anything there worth taking up. Will have a closer look at them in the April review I guess.
Baseball season has started, so I’m expecting loads of bets from Clear Data Sport for a good while. It’s the busiest service I follow with around 150 bets/month when active. That combined with that basically all other sports are active as well makes this the busiest period of the year. I like it.
Not sure I like that my portfolio is dominated by horse racing tipsters again though.
Here’s a funny thing. I’ve actually been able to start using a few bookies again, since Sweden’s new licensing system went live this year. I’m using them mostly for the darts odds, but an occasional football or horse racing bet might be placed outside the exchanges or Sportmarket as well if I get the chance.
It seems like I have to sum up two months at once since I can’t seem to get the updates out in time. I blame my two little girls, other work and life in general.
Seriously, I honestly do appreciate the feedback and questions I get about both this blog and about Bettin.gs. I try to get at least one update written every month, but still the other life seems to get in the way one way or another.
Anyway, enough with excuses and onto the update. It’s been a decent start of the year.
Nishi Kori and Fut Unver – my two Pyckio tipsters – are keeping the flags high and are the most busy tipsters these months and luckily, they’ve been profitable. 150 units in profit is pretty close to what I expect the portfolio to generate in total over two months, and these guys did it themselves.
I’ve got two takeaways from this month. The first one is that my patience with horse racing tipsters is very small, dues to the fact that I know so little about the sport, so when they don’t deliver I find it hard to deal with psychologically. I was almost about to kick Master Racing Tipster out, but then I, as I often do, look back over the long term results and changed my mind. That service has a long history in the portfolio so it’s not hard to convince myself to keep him a while longer. Note to self: Go back and check the long term results more often.
Pro Footy Tips has had a disastrous time since he left Betting Gods and partnered with Blogabet instead. Now the tips seem to have stopped entirely, which in my world makes both Blogabet and Pro Footy Tips seem quite unreliable. I also find Blogabet a bit hard to use, so kind of good riddance I guess. Maybe it’s the designer in me but I find even the most basic interface on that site extremely hard to understand.
With that said, Po Footy Tipster is out of the portfolio, which makes Fut Unver the only football tipster at the moment. Who would have thought… I’ve got a few lined up in my trial account so there might be a more busy next season but I won’t upgrade them into the portfolio just yet.
I’ve decided to up the stake for Nishi Kori and Fut Unver from March. They’re performing so well so I need to take advantage of it to make the most of the services. I’ve got some other staking changes coming up as well, but I haven’t decided if I should wait for the next season for them or not. I probably will.
Oh, the joy of golf betting. Golf Betting Expert manage to find the winner in all 4 tournaments of the month, which – naturally – resulted in a massive profit. 333 units at an incredible +328% ROI.
That’s golf betting in a nutshell. Unrealistic numbers when looking at them short term, but potentially very profitable in the long run. Golf Betting Expert is currently at a total of +452 units (+22.5% ROI) from 944 bets since December 2016.
As you might have figured out, there wasn’t much action among the other tipster this month. Swingform, the other golf tipster, also managed to find some winners (the two actually found the same one at a point, spot the spike in the graph…) and ended at +37 units (+37.9% ROI).
Other than that, there were mostly red numbers. Small numbers, but still red.
Pro Footy Tips is back. A different strategy this time as it seems. Let’s see what effect it has the results going forward. I’ve got high expectations from this service!
Even if baseball (Clear Data Sports) should do better, I really enjoy the process of betting in the sport. There’s lots of data available and there’s no shortage of people trying to interpret them at pretty much every level. I’m not an expert at all, but following it all makes it a great sport and service to follow. If the results follow, that is.
NFL season is underway, and while Clear Data Sport are crunching the numbers there as well, I need to do some testing there before adding their service in that sport into the portfolio.
The diversity is alright in the portfolio right now. Just wishing for a basketball tipster. I have one on the radar, but waiting for the season to start there right now.
In other news…
My personal bets are underperforming, both in numbers and results. Just 26 bets in August, hoping to find the time to raise that number in the months to come.
Anyway, that’s it for this time. Feel free to follow my results at Bettin.gs, as always.
The losing run from June never seemed to end and continued long into July, where things finally started going the right way again. Slowly and steadily I made my way back and somehow ended the month in a small profit.
I think it’s the biggest downturn I’ve had in the portfolio and I’m glad to see how my bankroll handled it. I’d love to compare downturns over time – probably something I’ll need to build into Bettin.gs!
Danilo Pereira came back in style with 73 units won and an ROI of almost 49% and Nishi Kori was a solid service to lean on as it was the most active one with 77 bets. 37 units and +9.7% ROI from him.
I’ve added the baseball service I’ve been having on trial for a while. I thought half way into the MLB season would be a good time for that and while the first 69 bets hasn’t shown profit, I’m excited to see what it’ll bring. It’s Clear Data Sports, an American service based on a few different models in different sports.
In other news…
All leagues are ramping up and football is here again. Expecting quite a few more bets than the 328 this month.