May review: -117 units (-6.2% ROI)

Well, the horrific downturn from April continued a bit into May and that dragged down the results to show a second red month in a row. Two heavy weight tipster was to blame, namely Fut Unver and The Betting Man.

Results for May 2019

When any of the most active tipsters stands out, either positively or negatively, it’s bound to have an effect on the result. This is of course intentional, since these tipsters are meant to be the most reliable in the portfolio so I want to take advantage of them the best way possible, but it also begs the question wether they’re too heavy relied on.

When thy hit an inevitable losing streak, or if a couple of them do it at the same time, heaven forbid, there’s not much chance for all other tipsters to cover up for their losses. This is a lesson learned, especially since Nishi Kori just hit 12 losers in a row in the beginning of June as well. I will probably adjust the staking plan to make the portfolio less vulnerable in the future, but I’ll write more about that in another post.

I should probably write more about my staking and bank management in general, if anyone’s interested?

Tipsters

Here are the results per tipster for May 2019:

Results per tipster May 2019

Thankfully Nishi Kori could make up for parts of the losses from Fut Unver and The Betting Man.

I decided to stop following Clear Data Sport after showing no signs of recovery. Time will tell wether that was a wise decision or not, but it was just way too time consuming and with too poor results. Sure, the season is long and they consistently beat the closing line, but my gut feeling tells me they’re on the wrong track and I’ve come to trust my gut feeling pretty well with time. Lesson learned: You can’t paper trade a service too little, and sometimes paper trading isn’t enough. I should have put more effort into real bets for a longer period of time last season.

Speaking of gut feeling – I stopped following Master Racing Tipster a while ago and sure enough a couple of months later he threw in the towel and quit his service. A long running service in my portfolio gone, which just once more shows how hard it is to make profit over time in this strange business.

Sports

Results per sport May 2019

Changes

I’m looking forward to the next season and I will probably up the stakes for DD Pronostics after a decent first basketball season. Not sure how to do with the horse racing tipsters, but a rather strong finish of the year is needed to stay in the portfolio. I’ve also got a number of football tipsters lined up, but I’m not sure which ones that will go straight in the portfolio and which ones will stay on trial for another while.

That will be after the summer though. Until then, we will mostly focus on tennis and horse racing, with a little darts and golf on top. Doesn’t sound too bad, does it?

April review: -122 units (-4,9% ROI)

Well, the betting gods, or variance, or karma, or whatever you may call it sure took back some of the glory from March. Most tipsters failed to make a profit and it was never really close to being a profitable month.

554 bets is a lot. Almost half of them are baseball bets. Almost half of the losses came there as well, so it’s safe to say we’re not really off to a flying start of the season when it comes to baseball.

Tipsters

Clear Data Sports, who are the ones delivering the baseball tips, were down 57,4 units. The new service Trade On Sports were down 23,1 units and Master Racing Tipster kept losing so much that I finally gave up on him after another 30 units lost. That service is no longer left in the portfolio. It seems I went out just in time, as the losses kept coming for the rest of the month as well. Perhaps he’ll come back to the line up someday, we’ll see. It’s the longest followed service in the portfolio, so quite sad to see him go.

Even On The Oche showed red numbers, as did Golf Betting Expert, Festival Value Service and my recent new tipster The Betting Man, who I have so high expectations for. He hasn’t delivered at all during the short period of time so far, so it’d better turn around soon.

When it comes to Clear Data Sports, I’m gonna have a close look on the numbers the upcoming month. I’ve got a bank of 100 units assigned to the service and I will use that as a stop loss limit. Should the losses keep coming in the same pace, there is probably no reason I should continue following. It’s a very labour intensive service to follow.

Sports

As you know, I’m finding it very frustrating every time I see losses accumulating from horse racing, and this month this was the case. April would be nicer without it, but then again the losses will be long forgotten as soon as the numbers turn green again.

Bookies

There must be som curse for me when it comes to Betfair. I need to look in to history to see how bad it actually is compared to other bookies. Sometimes the bets feel lost beforehand, knowing it’s Betfair I use to place them. ­čśë

March review: +343 units (+18.9% ROI)

What a month. Most pieces fell into place at the same time and as a result the numbers are better than average.

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379 bets and 1816 units placed is pretty much what I’m looking for every month, so to get a +18,9% ROI from that is nice once in a while. I’m looking for about +5-7% ROI in the long run.

I’ve been starting to track the closing odds for every bet I place as well, and it’s nice to see that the ROI for that is bit lower (+13%), even if it looks like I’ve only managed to beat ┬áthe closing line 46,3% of the times. Obviously, I’ve beaten them when the bet’s won and less often for the lost ones. Also a good sign, I reckon.

Tipsters

Almost all tipsters was profitable. Nishi Kori and Fut Unver did it like it’s business as usual, while Festival Value Service had a couple of great weekends, just like Golf Betting Expert, who got two winners in the same month and loads of profit as the numbers below shows.

My latest addition to the portfolio, The Betting Man, is off to a slow start unfortunately. Hoping for a better month in March for him. Master Racing Tipster is still struggling and I’ve actually lowered the stakes for him from March. That’s probably saved me a few units, and I’m still not convinced he’ll ever bounce back to be honest.

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New tipster

From April, I’m adding Trade on Sports to the portfolio. I’m planning to start following their lay bets in tennis to start with and continue monitoring the other sports they’re offering to see if there’s anything there worth taking up. Will have a closer look at them in the April review I guess.

Sports

Baseball season has started, so I’m expecting loads of bets from Clear Data Sport for a good while. It’s the busiest service I follow with around 150 bets/month when active. That combined with that basically all other sports are active as well makes this the busiest period of the year. I like it.

Not sure I like that my portfolio is dominated by horse racing tipsters again though.

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Bookies

Here’s a funny thing. I’ve actually been able to start using a few bookies again, since Sweden’s new licensing system went live this year. I’m using them mostly for the darts odds, but an occasional football or horse racing bet might be placed outside the exchanges or Sportmarket as well if I get the chance.

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August review: +306.7 units (+18.1% ROI)

Oh, the joy of golf betting. Golf Betting Expert manage to find the winner in all 4 tournaments of the month, which – naturally – resulted in a massive profit. 333 units at an incredible +328% ROI.

That’s golf betting in a nutshell. Unrealistic numbers when looking at them short term, but potentially very profitable in the long run. Golf Betting Expert is currently at a total of +452 units (+22.5% ROI) from 944 bets since December 2016.

General results from August 2018

Tipsters

As you might have figured out, there wasn’t much action among the other tipster this month. Swingform, the other golf tipster, also managed to find some winners (the two actually found the same one at a point, spot the spike in the graph…) and ended at +37 units (+37.9% ROI).

Other than that, there were mostly red numbers. Small numbers, but still red.

Pro Footy Tips is back. A different strategy this time as it seems. Let’s see what effect it has the results going forward. I’ve got high expectations from this service!

Sports

Even if baseball (Clear Data Sports) should do better, I really enjoy the process of betting in the sport. There’s lots of data available and there’s no shortage of people trying to interpret them at pretty much every level. I’m not an expert at all, but following it all makes it a great sport and service to follow. If the results follow, that is.

NFL season is underway, and while Clear Data Sport are crunching the numbers there as well, I need to do some testing there before adding their service in that sport into the portfolio.

The diversity is alright in the portfolio right now. Just wishing for a basketball tipster. I have one on the radar, but waiting for the season to start there right now.

In other news…

My personal bets are underperforming, both in numbers and results. Just 26 bets in August, hoping to find the time to raise that number in the months to come.

Anyway, that’s it for this time. Feel free to follow my results at Bettin.gs, as always.

July review: +8.8 units (+0.71% ROI)

The losing run from June never seemed to end and continued long into July, where things finally started going the right way again. Slowly and steadily I made my way back and somehow ended the month in a small profit.

I think it’s the biggest downturn I’ve had in the portfolio and I’m glad to see how my bankroll handled it. I’d love to compare downturns over time – probably something I’ll need to build into Bettin.gs!

July 2018 numbers
July 2018

Tipsters

Danilo Pereira came back in style with 73 units won and an ROI of almost 49% and Nishi Kori was a solid service to lean on as it was the most active one with 77 bets. 37 units and +9.7% ROI from him.

On the other end of the spectra we find Golf Betting Expert who had another losing month, as well as Master Racing Tipster whose winning run has clearly come to and end.

I’ve added the baseball service I’ve been having on trial for a while. I thought half way into the MLB season would be a good time for that and while the first 69 bets hasn’t shown profit, I’m excited to see what it’ll bring. It’s Clear Data Sports, an American service based on a few different models in different sports.

Tipsters July 2018
Tipsters July 2018

In other news…

All leagues are ramping up and football is here again. Expecting quite a few more bets than the 328 this month.

May review: +61.8 units (+4.4% ROI)

A lot to be happy about this month. The results weren’t extreme in any way, and that’s what I like. The profits kept coming in a steady pace, at least until a dip eventually arrived at the end of the month.

Summary

404 bets is a clear sign that the seasons for the most popular sports are coming to an end.

General stats May 2018

Sports

Almost more tennis bets than football bets, that says something. I surely don’t mind as long as the profits look like this. 84 units from tennis alone.

Tipsters

It’s Nishi Kori at the top of the list with both most bets and most units in profit. Golf Betting Expert finally turned things around with a nice month and 42 units in.

Surprisingly, Danilo Pereira was one of the least successful tipsters and I don’t expect that to happen very often. He is, and should be, one of the most predictable services I follow.

Not much to say about the others except that Fut Unver finished his fantastic debut season on top. Looking forward to the next one.

When it comes to Bet Alchemist I decided to go back to each way betting, but it turns out it’s just too much hassle getting both the win and the place bet matched at the exchanges so I’m going back to placing win bets only. I’ll keep the stake a bit lower (2 units) that I used to though.

In other news…

World Cup is around the corner and I’ve placed a few pre-tournament bets already. I’m using a separate hashtag for all those bets at Bettin.gs of course to follow up easily.

I’m tracking a couple of MLB and NBA services on the side and as it seems, it’s quite likely they’ll be added to the portfolio once next years seasons begin. That’ll be 2019 though…

April review: -124 units (-7.1% ROI)

I got a disappointing email from Betting Gods, where Pro Footy Tips decided to end his services from out out nowhere. Apart from it being unserious and unprofessional, it’s a shame for my personal portfolio as it was a very profitable service to follow. From 450 bets in 13 months, he made 231 units of profit for an ROI of +15.4% for me (minus charges).

So one football tipster shorter from now on. I’ll probably replace him somehow, but not sure how and when. Most likely not until the start of next season, after the summer.

April was a pretty poor month overall, with a long and frustrating losing streak wiping out the early winnings and causing the month to end in red.

Summary

448 bets with a strike rate of 29.2% is pretty close to normal, but too many tipsters showing too big losses to make it a good month.

General stats April 2018

Sports

Tipsters

Master Racing Tipster finally got on a good run, but that didn’t help much since Bet Alchemist, Nishi Kori, Football Investor and not least Golf Betting Expert showed some blood red numbers.

Football Investor has had a very poor season and that isn’t quite like him at all if you look at the previous seasons. Looking forward to the end of season review to hear his comments. I’m undecided to keep him in the portfolio, partly based on the trend this year but also that it’s a low frequent service and if a more active tipster shows up, I might go for that instead.

 

Also, it’s time for Golf Betting Expert to step up. Swingform on the other hand nailed the 3 first places in a tournament this month.

May has started nicely, let’s hope it’s a sign of better times to come.

Update: Forgot to mention that I’ve changed the staking strategy a bit for Bet Alchemist. Despite the fact that there are bigger wins to be expected in the long run by betting win only, I’ve decided to go for an each-way strategy instead. I find the swings a bit too extreme for my own liking. I prefer a more steady development in this portfolio. I’ve also reduced the stakes a bit. They are 1 unit each way for his bets from now on.

March review: +34 units (+2,45% ROI)

Another month in the books and it was one with many faces. The best face was the fact that Bet Alchemist absolutely crushed it at Cheltenham – that big horse racing event that everyone into horse racing is talking about. I’m more into the results and I was just as happy with that.

The sad face is the golf face. My two tipsters in that area can’t seem to hit a fairway at the moment. Such is golf betting though, but I hope luck will turn soon.

Summary

General stats March 2018

Sports

Stats per sport March 2018

Tipsters

I finally added a tennis tipster. I decided to go for “Nishi Kori” from Pyckio.com, as he passed all my tests after a pretty short test period, is a hall of famer at the Secret Betting Club and has gotten nice review from them. He introduced himself in the best possible way, with 134 units in profits the first month!

A more worrying trend is that Football Investor is having a tough season with just around +3% ROI so far. March ended 81 units down.

Stats per tipster March 2018

As I was trialing Nishi Kori, I stumbled upon another very interesting tipster at Pyckio – Fut Unver and the more I saw from him the more I liked it. The betting strategy, the results, and ont least that I was able to get even better odds than he quoted I decided to actually take him onboard. This was not planned, but there’s too much to like about him not to. He will be in the portfolio from April 1st (no joke).

This means I’m currently following 10 tipsters, which is practically the max I’ve set for myself to actually run this portfolio in a convenient way. That said, I do still have a few more on my radar…

All in all, I was hoping for a better ending for the month, but still – profit. Let’s hope April brings even more of that.

February review: -106 units (-12.6% ROI)

This one’s way overdue, but anyway. I’m back from my two weeks in Thailand. Back to reality. Turns out placing bets from that location was no bigger issue, so not as big a dip in activity as I might have thought. Perhaps I’d been better off without placing many of the bets though. February was no easy month to make money.

It sounds like I wasn’t the only one having a tough month among the bettors out there, but that’s no real comfort, is it?

Tipsters

Sports

In other news

I’ll just leave it there. The full breakdown is available at Bettin.gs/samuelericson, as always.

January review: -4 units (-0,34% ROI)

A first month of the year that doesn’t leave too many remarks. The new year started out great, with a busy start with loads of bets from smaller football tournaments in Brazil primarily.

Sadly, a blood red weekend awaited, wiping out all the profits in just a few days. The rest of the month was about recovery from that and in the end the portfolio ended up at break-even.

January 2018
January 2018

320 bets in total, 1181 units stakes, a strike rate of about 28%, all ending up with a break-even game.

Tipsters

Tipsters January 2018
Tipsters January 2018

Good month for Bet Alchemist, Football Investor and Danilo Pereira, while the others seemed to underperform. My personal bets were among the worst. A case of hubris after the sweet results lately or just a regression to the mean?

In other news

February will be mostly about grinding the bets out, but it’ll be a shorter month than normal as I’ll be going to Thailand for a couple of weeks and have no plans to place any bets during that time. After all, I’m on vacation…

I’ve also more or less decided to add a tennis tipster I’ve been keeping an eye on. That has to wait until March though, as long as the good performance keeps the same high level until then.

That’s all. Onwards and upwards.