March review: +343 units (+18.9% ROI)

What a month. Most pieces fell into place at the same time and as a result the numbers are better than average.

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379 bets and 1816 units placed is pretty much what I’m looking for every month, so to get a +18,9% ROI from that is nice once in a while. I’m looking for about +5-7% ROI in the long run.

I’ve been starting to track the closing odds for every bet I place as well, and it’s nice to see that the ROI for that is bit lower (+13%), even if it looks like I’ve only managed to beat  the closing line 46,3% of the times. Obviously, I’ve beaten them when the bet’s won and less often for the lost ones. Also a good sign, I reckon.

Tipsters

Almost all tipsters was profitable. Nishi Kori and Fut Unver did it like it’s business as usual, while Festival Value Service had a couple of great weekends, just like Golf Betting Expert, who got two winners in the same month and loads of profit as the numbers below shows.

My latest addition to the portfolio, The Betting Man, is off to a slow start unfortunately. Hoping for a better month in March for him. Master Racing Tipster is still struggling and I’ve actually lowered the stakes for him from March. That’s probably saved me a few units, and I’m still not convinced he’ll ever bounce back to be honest.

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New tipster

From April, I’m adding Trade on Sports to the portfolio. I’m planning to start following their lay bets in tennis to start with and continue monitoring the other sports they’re offering to see if there’s anything there worth taking up. Will have a closer look at them in the April review I guess.

Sports

Baseball season has started, so I’m expecting loads of bets from Clear Data Sport for a good while. It’s the busiest service I follow with around 150 bets/month when active. That combined with that basically all other sports are active as well makes this the busiest period of the year. I like it.

Not sure I like that my portfolio is dominated by horse racing tipsters again though.

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Bookies

Here’s a funny thing. I’ve actually been able to start using a few bookies again, since Sweden’s new licensing system went live this year. I’m using them mostly for the darts odds, but an occasional football or horse racing bet might be placed outside the exchanges or Sportmarket as well if I get the chance.

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August review: +306.7 units (+18.1% ROI)

Oh, the joy of golf betting. Golf Betting Expert manage to find the winner in all 4 tournaments of the month, which – naturally – resulted in a massive profit. 333 units at an incredible +328% ROI.

That’s golf betting in a nutshell. Unrealistic numbers when looking at them short term, but potentially very profitable in the long run. Golf Betting Expert is currently at a total of +452 units (+22.5% ROI) from 944 bets since December 2016.

General results from August 2018

Tipsters

As you might have figured out, there wasn’t much action among the other tipster this month. Swingform, the other golf tipster, also managed to find some winners (the two actually found the same one at a point, spot the spike in the graph…) and ended at +37 units (+37.9% ROI).

Other than that, there were mostly red numbers. Small numbers, but still red.

Pro Footy Tips is back. A different strategy this time as it seems. Let’s see what effect it has the results going forward. I’ve got high expectations from this service!

Sports

Even if baseball (Clear Data Sports) should do better, I really enjoy the process of betting in the sport. There’s lots of data available and there’s no shortage of people trying to interpret them at pretty much every level. I’m not an expert at all, but following it all makes it a great sport and service to follow. If the results follow, that is.

NFL season is underway, and while Clear Data Sport are crunching the numbers there as well, I need to do some testing there before adding their service in that sport into the portfolio.

The diversity is alright in the portfolio right now. Just wishing for a basketball tipster. I have one on the radar, but waiting for the season to start there right now.

In other news…

My personal bets are underperforming, both in numbers and results. Just 26 bets in August, hoping to find the time to raise that number in the months to come.

Anyway, that’s it for this time. Feel free to follow my results at Bettin.gs, as always.

May review: +61.8 units (+4.4% ROI)

A lot to be happy about this month. The results weren’t extreme in any way, and that’s what I like. The profits kept coming in a steady pace, at least until a dip eventually arrived at the end of the month.

Summary

404 bets is a clear sign that the seasons for the most popular sports are coming to an end.

General stats May 2018

Sports

Almost more tennis bets than football bets, that says something. I surely don’t mind as long as the profits look like this. 84 units from tennis alone.

Tipsters

It’s Nishi Kori at the top of the list with both most bets and most units in profit. Golf Betting Expert finally turned things around with a nice month and 42 units in.

Surprisingly, Danilo Pereira was one of the least successful tipsters and I don’t expect that to happen very often. He is, and should be, one of the most predictable services I follow.

Not much to say about the others except that Fut Unver finished his fantastic debut season on top. Looking forward to the next one.

When it comes to Bet Alchemist I decided to go back to each way betting, but it turns out it’s just too much hassle getting both the win and the place bet matched at the exchanges so I’m going back to placing win bets only. I’ll keep the stake a bit lower (2 units) that I used to though.

In other news…

World Cup is around the corner and I’ve placed a few pre-tournament bets already. I’m using a separate hashtag for all those bets at Bettin.gs of course to follow up easily.

I’m tracking a couple of MLB and NBA services on the side and as it seems, it’s quite likely they’ll be added to the portfolio once next years seasons begin. That’ll be 2019 though…

April review: -124 units (-7.1% ROI)

I got a disappointing email from Betting Gods, where Pro Footy Tips decided to end his services from out out nowhere. Apart from it being unserious and unprofessional, it’s a shame for my personal portfolio as it was a very profitable service to follow. From 450 bets in 13 months, he made 231 units of profit for an ROI of +15.4% for me (minus charges).

So one football tipster shorter from now on. I’ll probably replace him somehow, but not sure how and when. Most likely not until the start of next season, after the summer.

April was a pretty poor month overall, with a long and frustrating losing streak wiping out the early winnings and causing the month to end in red.

Summary

448 bets with a strike rate of 29.2% is pretty close to normal, but too many tipsters showing too big losses to make it a good month.

General stats April 2018

Sports

Tipsters

Master Racing Tipster finally got on a good run, but that didn’t help much since Bet Alchemist, Nishi Kori, Football Investor and not least Golf Betting Expert showed some blood red numbers.

Football Investor has had a very poor season and that isn’t quite like him at all if you look at the previous seasons. Looking forward to the end of season review to hear his comments. I’m undecided to keep him in the portfolio, partly based on the trend this year but also that it’s a low frequent service and if a more active tipster shows up, I might go for that instead.

 

Also, it’s time for Golf Betting Expert to step up. Swingform on the other hand nailed the 3 first places in a tournament this month.

May has started nicely, let’s hope it’s a sign of better times to come.

Update: Forgot to mention that I’ve changed the staking strategy a bit for Bet Alchemist. Despite the fact that there are bigger wins to be expected in the long run by betting win only, I’ve decided to go for an each-way strategy instead. I find the swings a bit too extreme for my own liking. I prefer a more steady development in this portfolio. I’ve also reduced the stakes a bit. They are 1 unit each way for his bets from now on.

February review: -106 units (-12.6% ROI)

This one’s way overdue, but anyway. I’m back from my two weeks in Thailand. Back to reality. Turns out placing bets from that location was no bigger issue, so not as big a dip in activity as I might have thought. Perhaps I’d been better off without placing many of the bets though. February was no easy month to make money.

It sounds like I wasn’t the only one having a tough month among the bettors out there, but that’s no real comfort, is it?

Tipsters

Sports

In other news

I’ll just leave it there. The full breakdown is available at Bettin.gs/samuelericson, as always.

Into 2018

New year, new possibilities. As they say.

I will be making some adjustments in the portfolio for the new year – things I’ve been planning to do for months, just waiting for the new year.

New tipsters

Danilo Pereira, Brazilian football tipster, betting on the Asian Handicaps in Brazil and a few other South American competitions. I’ve been trialing his service since September and I’m now ready to take him on board. Quite a busy one, so he’ll most likely make a mark.

Swingform, another golf tipster. I’m really enjoying betting on golf and that’s one of the reasons I’m taking another tipster into the portfolio. The other one being the results shown so far and money to be made, obviously. I’ve been trialing the service since May and despite the ups and downs in numbers (such is golf) I’m adding it from Jan 1st.

Tipsters out

I’m a bit sad to see two of my most active tipsters go, but that’s the reality for both All Weather Profits and Jason James. This is due to two reasons: The first and most important one is that there hasn’t been too much profit lately. All Weather Profits shows +0,99% ROI over the last year (about 10 units won) and Jason James has been pretty much broken even the last 18 months.

The other reason is that I’ve found I simply have no interest in horse racing. Both of these are busy racing tipsters with loads of wisdom, but for me it’s all about the numbers. Long losing runs are harder to cope with when you don’t have a clue about form or reasons behind it and the time it takes to place all bets is just now worth it if there’s no fun or excitement in it. That said, both services have proven to be profitable in the long run and I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend them both to anyone with the slightest interest in horse racing.

With these two out, it means I have only two horse racing tipsters left in the portfolio – Master Racing Tipster and Bet Alchemist. Both of them are low workload tipsters with great track records. That suits me better.

Also, Winabobatoo, not really a tipster but a service, but I’ve decided to let that one live outside the portfolio as one of the sources that I base my personal bets on.

Adjustments

I’ll be increasing the stakes slightly for Pro Footy Tips. With an ROI of 16,85% from his 319 bets so far, I’m ready to invest a little more in his tips. This means that for each point from him (his scale is 1-5) I’ll be betting 2 units (my scale is 1-10). It’s been 1,5 units so far.

I’ll also be upping the stakes for Bet Alchemist a bit. His bets are usually one point. I’ll be putting on 3 units for each of them.

I’ve also already upped the stake for my least busy tipster On The Oche. The stake for each of his points is now 6 units. This is due to the fact that there was only one bet higher than 1 unit from him during last year and with a track record like his, there’s no need to hold back the stakes. It’s a great darts service to follow.

Other changes

I was hoping to add a basket tipster to the portfolio, but have decided I need more time to analyze his service before making a decision. I would like to add one basket tipster and one tennis tipster to diversify the portfolio, but good ones are hard to find. Any tips? Would love to try a few out.

The portfolio

As it stands at the start of the new year, here are the 8 services included:

Unless I stumble upon that tennis or basket service, this is pretty much I hope the portfolio will look during 2018.

Here’s to another great year of betting!

15 000 bets

I just passed 15 000 bets registered at Bettin.gs. They are divided on a quite big amount of tipsters and services, but for some of them I can be pretty sure I’m reaching some kind of statistical significance.

Ordered by number of bets, here are the top tipsters based on those 15 013 bets.

Most active tipsters from the first 15 000 bets.
Most active tipsters from the first 15 013 bets.

Nice to see most of them are in the green, including my own bets (listed as “No tipster”), with a 3.55% ROI. Better than many paid tipsters, ironically. Also interesting to see that there are a few up there I’m not following anymore, for other reasons than the results.

The first bets were registered in January 2014, so it’s taken a while to reach it. Also worth noticing this is just the official portfolio.  I have another account to track potential tipsters. Those numbers are a less nice to analyze for obvious reasons. I might dig a little deeper into that here some time as well.

June review: -49,6 units (-6,35% ROI)

I’m treading water here a bit. A loss for the month means I’m pretty much left on break-even over the last 4 months. Not good, not bad, but surely a bit boring.


There’s low activity among several of the tipsters, so in June there were only 271 bets placed, compared to the 350 I have planned for on a monthly average over a year. That could explain some of the results, but the fact is that almost all of it could be tracked back to Golf Betting Expert, who had a very poor month. Don’t read too much into the ROI column there though – there’s still a bug at Bettin.gs concerning each-way bets, which this tipster relies heavily on.

Tipsters


As you can see, not that bad apart from the golf. Premier Greyhound Tips made a loss but has shown signs of improvements lately, so hopefully his terrible slump of late is over.

Jason James had a stable month, as had Pro Footy Tips, with some great football results.

Master Racing Tipster continues to deliver – what a great service that is. I wrote a blog post about it recently, in case you missed it.

All Weather Profits is low on action at this time of year, but On The Oche keeps delivering units from the darts. Nice to have a low frequency/high quality service like that in the portfolio.

Mr Odds is my biggest question mark right now. His bets in Sweden are not giving much. I’ll make a review once the season is over (we’re about half-way) and make a decision then how to move forward. I’m mostly after his Swedish bets, as I’m having other sources to go on when it comes to England, so I’m not not sure I need the service going forward. We’ll see.

Sports


Horse racing is still the major sport in the portfolio, so I’ll be careful to add more services like that into the portfolio, even if I do have some looking really good under the microscope.

I always try to diversify my portfolio and I’m keeping an eye on services for American sports (NHL, NBA, MLB etc), another golf tipster, MMA and boxing at the moment. Really not sure any of them will get into the portfolio though.

We’ll see.

March review: +56 units (+3.3% ROI)

A fantastic month in many ways. The one dark cloud on the betting sky was very dark though.

1700 units staked, which is very much on target. The ROI is a bit below target, which is much due to the performance of Jason James.

I’m not worried though. It’s covered by the betting bank. Still, it’s a major downturn with 187 units down during March. Yes, -187 units. On the upside, the new tipster All Weather Profits showed a nice profit, as did Master Racing Tipster.

Golf Betting Expert also had another great month. His performance lately has been extreme, in a good way. Insiders Tennis was also a joy to follow during March.

All in all, a decent month which could have been great, but that’s the entire point of diversifying the portfolio. Onto the next one.

January to June 2016: -569 units (-5.9% ROI)

All in all 9632 units invested in 3014 bets with a hit rate of 27.9% during these 6 months. Average odds from these bets were 7.35. At longer odds like this variation is to be expected, but at the same time it has been kind of a test with a downturn like this.

I’ve also made a few mistakes during this pretty heavy time, which I have tried to  correct since.

In short, these are:

  1. For new services, track all results without investing real money until you feel really confident that it suits your style and that they really will make you money.
  2. Don’t fall into the trap and follow every tipster that seems successful. Be patient, and be very, very restrictive with who to follow.

I was of course using Bettin.gs to track all bets. They come from no less than 21 different tipsters, even if they were ready to be included in the official portfolio or not. This turned out to be far from a successful approach, with 4 out of 6 months ending in a loss.

I remember these months as the first real downturn, with far too many tipsters underperforming at the same time. I knew times like these would come, but when it did it almost felt ridiculously tough.

Since then I’ve started a private “trial” account, where I track the results from all services that may or may not be included in the portfolio at some point.

Your stats | Bettin.gs
No great 6 months to start the year.

Football: -267 units (-10.5% ROI)

I followed several football tipsters – no less than 9 in total, where only one showed green numbers during this period. I was still using three well known systems trying to build a successful combo system, but it never worked out. I’m still a bit baffled why, but there you go.

Lessons learned: It’s hard to build a winning system in football based on numbers only and the result from most football tipsters are way below my personal bets’ results.

US Sports: -150 units (-12.6% ROI)

I also tried to find a winning system at a system covering American sports, without succeeding. I have later read an updated report for this service at Secret Betting Club, revealing several shortcomings with the service which i wished I could’ve read before signing up.

Lesson learned: Trial all services enough to feel confident they will make money in the long run. Personal advice: Stay away from ProComputerGambler.

Horse racing: -117 units (-2.3% ROI)

From 1719 bets and 6 different tipsters, the 2 most active tipsters showed a profit (Jason James and Northern Monkey).

This turned in to a great opportunity to clean out some losers, which I’ve also done since.

Sadly, during this period, as ironic as it may sound, I lost or was restricted at more or less all of my major bookie accounts, which pushed me to use exchanges like Betfair, Smarkets and Matchbook exclusively. That also meant giving up on one of my favourite tipsters, Northern Monkey, as he relies a lot of each-way, ante post and multiple bets.

Lesson learned: As above, be sure to trial ALL services before committing long-term.

All bets and full stats are always available at bettin.gs/samuelericson.

Review of July to December coming as soon as the year is over.