Weekly review, Feb 22

Another losing week, this one. Can’t seem to get ut of this bad trend.

Here are the results from last week.

Football

Extremely home-heavy rounds in English football this weekend, which is bad for pretty much all of the systems I’m following. Fink Tank, for example, lost all 3 bets. All away bets. This week, my strategy of combining the systems saved me from heavier losses though.

Fink Tank -7 units from 3 bets
Winabobatoo -9.73 units from 9 bets
Football Investor -4.34 units 8 bets
Soyloco +7.36 units from 34 bets

Horse Racing

Jason James +34.6 units from 16 bets
Northern Monkey -31.95 units from 18 bets
Master Racing Tipster -8.92 units from 9 bets
Mystery Tipster -0.71 units from 6 bets
Chris Patti: -0.71 units from 6 bets

On trial: Tom Nelson Racing -19.38 units units from 26 bets

American Sports

ProComputerGamber NHL -17.85 units from 18 bets
ProComputerGamber NBA +37.5 units from 7 bets

Golf

Niall Lyons -3.65 units from 9 bets

Weekly review, Feb 15

Horse racing up, football down. It’s starting to become a common mantra for the portfolio. When it comes to the football systems, I’m absolutely baffled about the results. I took a closer look at how they’d performed on their own, and sure, they’re struggling at the moment but it’s not like they’re generating big losses, more like they’re not generating profit like they use to. At the moment that is, they’re all up over the season.

What baffles me is the consistency in the number of bets that are common for more than one system (which are the ones I bet at) that fail to win, while the unique bets for each service are the ones that makes the whole difference. It’s the absolute opposite of how this is suppose to work.

Anyhow, I need at least a full season to draw any conclusions, so I’ll keep grinding the rest of this spring.

Here are the results from last week.

Football

Fink Tank -4.25 units from 6 bets
Winabobatoo -21.1 units from 10 bets
Football Investor -10.3 units 5 bets
Soyloco -9.12 units from 27 bets

Horse Racing

Jason James +23.9 units from 17 bets
Northern Monkey +10.4 from 12 bets
Master Racing Tipster +18.0 from 8 bets
Mystery Tipster -0.93 from 8 bets
Chris Patti: -13.71 from 20 bets

On trial: Tom Nelson Racing -25.7 units from 30 bets

American Sports

ProComputerGamber NHL +1.08 units from 18 bets
ProComputerGamber NBA -15.8 units from 9 bets

Golf

Niall Lyons -6.5 units from 3 bets

Weekly review, Feb 8

A turn-around from what I’ve been experienced lately, now with most horse racing tipsters showing profit. The new approach with PCG also started out well. The only setback was the football systems (again).

Here are the results from last week:

Football

Still struggling.

Fink Tank -1.7 units
Winabotatoo -9.2 units
Football Investor -12.2 units
Soyloco -2.4 units

Horse racing

Northern Monkey on fire. One week left for Mystery Tipster to show his value.

Northern Monkey Punter +67 units
Mystery Tipster -13.4 units
Jason James +15.9 units
Master Racing Tipster +10.7 units
Chris Patti -5.7 units

On trial: Tom Nelson Racing +9.8 units

American sports

ProComputerGambler:
NHL +23.9 units
NBA -11.2 units

Golf

Niall Lyon had 3 of his tips in the top-5 in Qatar, but not the winner and only one of them was a place bet, so what could have been a huge competition ended with a very small profit.

Niall Lyon +0.68 units

ProComputerGambler changes

I went through the results of ProComputerGambler lately and at a closer look I could find no value in keeping following the email picks blindly at the current point. NBA and NHL has been a lottery the last months and NFL has winded down for the season. I gave up college sports some time ago, which leaves me with MLB, which I do want to follow and got decent results from last year following PCG. It’s just not enough to continue following the email picks, which is all I’ve been doing so far.

Your stats | Bettin.gs
ProComputerGambler results last year

40 units up, which is pretty much what it was on after the first month.

What I’ll do, is to focus 100% on the Raw numbers that PCG provides and evaluate after that time. If you have no clue what I’m talking about, you can read more about “Raw numbers” here.

Will also keep an eye on it via SBC, who is proofing his bets, of course.

January review

A pretty terrible month overall, primarily because of football betting. My combo of the three football tipsters to find the most value has failed to prove anything so far, but it all fairness the number of bets are too small to prove anything yet and with the pretty high odds played I’m gonna wait to draw any bigger conclusions before the season ends.

For February I’m adding two “official” tipsters to the portfolio. Soy Loco por ti America, to cover South American football, and Chris Patti, a free horse racing tipster from the Secret Betting Club Forum.
I’m also about to decide if I should keep Mystery Tipster or not, and I will take a closer look at ProComputerGambler, who has been bleeding lately.

Here are the results for January.

Football

Winabobatoo -30.5 units (-18.3% ROI)
Fink Tank -15.23 units (-22.1% ROI)
Football Investor -38.3 units (-18.1% ROI)

No luck with the combo system yet. Will wait until the end of the season to draw any bigger conclusions though.

Horse racing

Northern Monkey Punter -2.9 units (-3.2% ROI)
Mystery Tipster -8.2 units (-13.5% ROI)
Master Racing Tipster -25.0 units (-21.1% ROI)
Jason James +18.4 units (6.0% ROI)

A very strange and poor month even for the most reliable tipsters. Mystery Tipster currently under consideration for a cancellation.

American sports

ProComputerGambler -52.3 units (-21.1% ROI)

Basically only NBA bets, since I paused the NHL and college sports earlier after poor results. The service is hanging on a loose thread, only saved by the MLB results from last year that I’m hoping to repeat once the season starts.

Golf

Niall Lyons +21.3 units (22.7% ROI)

Continues his amazing performance. Was extremely close to finding an 75 odds winner, which would have rocketed the results.

Complete stats, including other tipsters and my personal bets available at bettin.gs/samuelericson/stats

Weekly review, 1 Feb

Just a quick review of last week, since the January review (the first monthly) is due.

Overall the week showed a profit of 79.3 units from 80 bets. That’s an ROI of almost 30%. Half of the profit came from Niall Lyon, who picked the right winner in the golf tournament in Qatar.

Football

Winabotatoo +4.6 units (57.5% ROI)
Football Investor +19 units (152% ROI)

Horse Racing

Badrinath -6.46 units (-32.3% ROI)
Northern Monkey Punter -6.18 units (-24.3% ROI)
Jason James +16.7 units (31.7% ROI)
Master Racing Tipster +16.1 units (76.6% ROI)

American sports

ProComputerGambler +5.1 unit (7.6% ROI)

Golf

Niall Lyon +39.8 units (159% ROI)

Weekly review, 25 Jan

Football

Currently not succeeding with my combination of systems strategy, mostly due to a bad run from Football Investor. Should I have stayed with Winabobatoo’s original ratings, I’d be in the green this week. Shoulda woulda coulda…

Winabobatoo -1.9 units (-4.9% ROI)
Fink Tank +3 units (+24% ROI)
Football Investor -14.2 units (-37.9% ROI)

American sports

Absolute disaster. The NBA run is far gone, and NHL has taken over as the leading sport. I’m not on the NHL bets though after poor results since I started following the service. Results here are NBA only.

ProComputerGambler -31 units (-58.5% ROI)

Horse racing

Northern Monkey back on track and Jason James showing a loss for the first time since… ever? Most reliable service in the portfolio (+25% ROI overall). Mighty bad week for Master Racing Tipster, the otherwise so reliable service (+24.7% ROI).

Mystery Tipster +1 unit (+24% ROI)
Northern Monky Punter +16.4 units (+53.4% ROI)
Jason James -2.9 units (-4% ROI)
Master Racing Tipster -20.5 units (-68.2% ROI)

Golf

Niall Lyon +16.7 units (+145% ROI)

Mr. Lyon was on Lingmerth to win @75 but the Swede lost in the H2H playoff. Tough shit, especially it was only weeks since the exact same scenario happened with Kiefer. Anyway, a win is a win and second place + best European gave money in the bank.

Current status

The portfolio started out with a bang in April 2015 (up 208 units, compared to my target at 100 units) and over the summer things had been smooth sailing, much thanks to the horse racing tipsters I’d started following, and the English football and baseball tipsters were also doing fine.

Things went well and I found this portfolio thing an easy to master but at the same time I was aware the good form wasn’t gonna last forever. Starting in November the easy ride was over and I was making a small loss for the first time. Fair enough, I thought, since it’d been running a bit over expectations so far. As October ended I was up 1049 units – an ROI of +6,7%. My overall goal is +5%.

Portfolio stats
The development of the portfolio so far

December came and brought the first bigger loss of the year (-154 units) and as January started I was hoping for a quick recovery. It didn’t happen. It actually got worse. All the so far reliable horse tipsters seemed to have found their worse run in history at the same time and football results were basically a joke (see previous post for one example out of many). I didn’t seem to be able to hit the most obvious targets.

This is basically where I am now – down 298 units in January. Fighting my way back, but January is already the worst month in the brief history of this portfolio and I’m still struggling. Things are getting a bit less ridiculuous though and I’m expecting things to normalize any day. Hopefully I’ll be able to reduce the January damage before the month ends. Not many days left though.

My current ROI, counting from April 2015, is +2.53% so I have a long way back to reaching my goal at 5%. The funny part is this is more or less what I’d expected it would be running this portfolio, but I’m very happy the upturn came before the downturn.

Full stats always available at bettin.gs/samuelericson/stats.

Result per tipster

Football

Fink Tank: +4.52%

Football Investor: -18.04%

Winabobatoo: -1.83%

American Sports

ProComputerGambler: +0.48%

Horse Racing

Mystery Tipster: +9.54%

Northern Monkey Punter: +12.17%

Jason James: +25.6%

Master Racing Tipster: +25.28%

Perfect example

Before I get into the current status of the portfolio, here’s the perfect example of how things are going. Today I was potentially having two away  bets from my football systems: Millwall v Port Vale and Oxford United v Bristol Rovers. My odds limit for the bets to match two systems were at 5,20 for Port Vale and 4,10 for Rovers and none of them were matched at lunchtime. The games later ended with a nice Rovers win while Port Vale got a solid beating.

When I checked my results later on, naturally the Port Vale bet was matched while the Rovers one was not. Now, if this game was played in September, it would probably have been the opposite, but that’s about how things are going for the moment. Instead of  30 units up, I’m on 8,5 units down.

There are ups and there are downs, and right now I’m further down than ever before.

Here we go

Allright, the blog is up. The goal with it is primarily to help myself to get some ideas off my chest and to share my experiences as a semi-professional investor in sport markets.

You’ll be able to read more about my background and the portfolio soon on the dedicated pages. Until then, let me just introduce myself by saying I’m running the Bettin.gs service, helping people keeping track of their bets since 2014. This blog is in part a result of that, where I follow the services that I’ve learnt are profitable by tracking the bets from these services.

I’m gonna start with a short write-up of the current status of the portfolio shortly and I’m greatful for all the feedback and input I can get. The portfolio is never done, always in beta, so changes can and will happen.

Here we go!