June review: -51 units (-4% ROI)

Not much time for analyzing unfortunately due to reasons, but I did not expect June to end in red after going +100 units the first week. What a terrible run I’m on at the moment.

Tipsters

A quick look at the tipster table shows what’s going on. No luck with the golf (been a while now), and I had a terrible world cup with my own bets, but above all – Danilo Pereira with another huge losing month after some horrendous tipping. Almost 76 units down for an ROI at -22.6%. Quite an achievement at those odds (2.17 on average) from 62 bets.

In other news

Bet Alchemist is out of the portfolio. I’ve mentioned before that I’m finding it hard to motivate betting on horses, and I’ve never really found a way to place his bets (each-eay or win only) that’s felt suitable for me. Plus he only publishes his tips on a website that sucks balls to navigate. A good horse tipster in the long run though for sure, but it’s not for me.

This leaves me with just 7 tipsters in the portfolio which leaves room for at least one or two more. I’ve got two lined up among my tipsters on trial, but if you have any tips whatsoever, feel free to add a comment. Cheers.

April review: -124 units (-7.1% ROI)

I got a disappointing email from Betting Gods, where Pro Footy Tips decided to end his services from out out nowhere. Apart from it being unserious and unprofessional, it’s a shame for my personal portfolio as it was a very profitable service to follow. From 450 bets in 13 months, he made 231 units of profit for an ROI of +15.4% for me (minus charges).

So one football tipster shorter from now on. I’ll probably replace him somehow, but not sure how and when. Most likely not until the start of next season, after the summer.

April was a pretty poor month overall, with a long and frustrating losing streak wiping out the early winnings and causing the month to end in red.

Summary

448 bets with a strike rate of 29.2% is pretty close to normal, but too many tipsters showing too big losses to make it a good month.

General stats April 2018

Sports

Tipsters

Master Racing Tipster finally got on a good run, but that didn’t help much since Bet Alchemist, Nishi Kori, Football Investor and not least Golf Betting Expert showed some blood red numbers.

Football Investor has had a very poor season and that isn’t quite like him at all if you look at the previous seasons. Looking forward to the end of season review to hear his comments. I’m undecided to keep him in the portfolio, partly based on the trend this year but also that it’s a low frequent service and if a more active tipster shows up, I might go for that instead.

 

Also, it’s time for Golf Betting Expert to step up. Swingform on the other hand nailed the 3 first places in a tournament this month.

May has started nicely, let’s hope it’s a sign of better times to come.

Update: Forgot to mention that I’ve changed the staking strategy a bit for Bet Alchemist. Despite the fact that there are bigger wins to be expected in the long run by betting win only, I’ve decided to go for an each-way strategy instead. I find the swings a bit too extreme for my own liking. I prefer a more steady development in this portfolio. I’ve also reduced the stakes a bit. They are 1 unit each way for his bets from now on.

Into 2018

New year, new possibilities. As they say.

I will be making some adjustments in the portfolio for the new year – things I’ve been planning to do for months, just waiting for the new year.

New tipsters

Danilo Pereira, Brazilian football tipster, betting on the Asian Handicaps in Brazil and a few other South American competitions. I’ve been trialing his service since September and I’m now ready to take him on board. Quite a busy one, so he’ll most likely make a mark.

Swingform, another golf tipster. I’m really enjoying betting on golf and that’s one of the reasons I’m taking another tipster into the portfolio. The other one being the results shown so far and money to be made, obviously. I’ve been trialing the service since May and despite the ups and downs in numbers (such is golf) I’m adding it from Jan 1st.

Tipsters out

I’m a bit sad to see two of my most active tipsters go, but that’s the reality for both All Weather Profits and Jason James. This is due to two reasons: The first and most important one is that there hasn’t been too much profit lately. All Weather Profits shows +0,99% ROI over the last year (about 10 units won) and Jason James has been pretty much broken even the last 18 months.

The other reason is that I’ve found I simply have no interest in horse racing. Both of these are busy racing tipsters with loads of wisdom, but for me it’s all about the numbers. Long losing runs are harder to cope with when you don’t have a clue about form or reasons behind it and the time it takes to place all bets is just now worth it if there’s no fun or excitement in it. That said, both services have proven to be profitable in the long run and I wouldn’t hesitate to recommend them both to anyone with the slightest interest in horse racing.

With these two out, it means I have only two horse racing tipsters left in the portfolio – Master Racing Tipster and Bet Alchemist. Both of them are low workload tipsters with great track records. That suits me better.

Also, Winabobatoo, not really a tipster but a service, but I’ve decided to let that one live outside the portfolio as one of the sources that I base my personal bets on.

Adjustments

I’ll be increasing the stakes slightly for Pro Footy Tips. With an ROI of 16,85% from his 319 bets so far, I’m ready to invest a little more in his tips. This means that for each point from him (his scale is 1-5) I’ll be betting 2 units (my scale is 1-10). It’s been 1,5 units so far.

I’ll also be upping the stakes for Bet Alchemist a bit. His bets are usually one point. I’ll be putting on 3 units for each of them.

I’ve also already upped the stake for my least busy tipster On The Oche. The stake for each of his points is now 6 units. This is due to the fact that there was only one bet higher than 1 unit from him during last year and with a track record like his, there’s no need to hold back the stakes. It’s a great darts service to follow.

Other changes

I was hoping to add a basket tipster to the portfolio, but have decided I need more time to analyze his service before making a decision. I would like to add one basket tipster and one tennis tipster to diversify the portfolio, but good ones are hard to find. Any tips? Would love to try a few out.

The portfolio

As it stands at the start of the new year, here are the 8 services included:

Unless I stumble upon that tennis or basket service, this is pretty much I hope the portfolio will look during 2018.

Here’s to another great year of betting!

November review: +149.8 units (+12.5% ROI)

 

Time flies, and I almost forgot to post the review for last month. That would be a shame, because it was a good month.

November 2017
November 2017

 

It started out pretty much like the previous months though, so I was almost preparing for a few weeks of struggling after the initial success.

In the end, it turned out just alright with the golfing being the top performing sport, like it usually is when a winner is found. On the more negative side, my busiest horse racing tipsters are once again the ones that perform the worst.

Graph for november 2017 

Sports

Decent numbers all overs, only horse racing failing to make a profit (except for the one ice hockey bet).

Tipsters

Looking a bit closer at the tipsters section, it’s Jason James and All Weather Profits that stands for the major part of the red numbers. It’s a bit worrying and at least one of them will be part of some changes I’m planning to make for the new year. More on that later this month.

Pro Footy Tips, Golf Betting Expert and Master Racing Tipster – all from the Betting Gods network – had splendid months. As had Bet Alchemist, who’s had a few very nice first months here in the portfolio.

On the Oche is such a nice service to follow, but the bets are quite few and far between, so I’m not sure how to do it next year. Need to decide in the next few days.

Not a lot of success among the English football tipsters (Winabobatoo and Football Investor) this month, while my own 32 bets showed a healthy +10.5% ROI.

 

In other news

All in all I staked 1200 units with a strike rate of 27.5%. A bit lower in both units and percent than expected. I haven’t dug more into why that is though. That’s for another time.

 

That’s all for now. Cheers!

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December so far

It seems I’m back on track after a couple of less successful months. A closer look shows us just why.

One of my golf betting tipsters hit a 320 odds winner and a 80 odds place in the last tournament of the year. Safe to say I’m happy with the decision to spread the golf stakes and take this tipster on board!

Here’s how it looks so far. Winabobatoo has been a disaster but we’re much above the break even thanks to Golf Betting Expert. Diversification ftw.

December stats per tipster
December stats per tipster

Dark, Dark November: -184 units (-11.8%)

Funny things these, ups and downs. The last few months has shown steady profits, almost a little boring, with some tipsters performing well and others performing worse. In a portfolio like this, it evens out supposedly. Usually in the short run and definitely in the long run.

November was a terrible month for basically all tipsters though and that put my bankroll under pressure. Luckily for me is that runs like this is part of the plan. At least as long as they don’t come too often.

In review

Something I could had done to avoid it? Probably. I was pretty quick with replacing Northern Monkey with new, free tipsters, which is something I’ve now decided to revert. Partly because it’s too much work with more tipsters and partly because I’m not convinced they’d make my portfolio more profitable.

I’ve also put a little too many eggs in too few baskets, so I’m gonna reduce the stakes for the greyhound tipster a bit and spread the golf stakes more by adding another golf tipster.

New tipsters

Quentin Frank is replacing Northern Monkey. He’s another tipster from the Betting Gods network and has shown fine numbers and has great reviews from SBC.

I’m also adding thh golf tipster from Betting Gods to relieve Niall Lyons from having all the power. I’m dividing the current golf stakes between these two to reduce risk.

Here are the numbers from November.

General

your-stats-bettin-gs

Tipsters

Winabobatoo had a tough month after the fine start and the 30 bets there were doing no good. The greyhound tipster also had a very poor month and being relatively heavily weighted in the portfolio, it hit hard. Other than that, no luck with the new, replacing horse racing tipster that I might have been too fast with introducing.

your-stats-bettin-gs

Sports

The football honey moon is over for this time. Hoping the busy December in England will do me good instead.

your-stats-bettin-gs

Here’s to a brighter December!

Current status

The portfolio started out with a bang in April 2015 (up 208 units, compared to my target at 100 units) and over the summer things had been smooth sailing, much thanks to the horse racing tipsters I’d started following, and the English football and baseball tipsters were also doing fine.

Things went well and I found this portfolio thing an easy to master but at the same time I was aware the good form wasn’t gonna last forever. Starting in November the easy ride was over and I was making a small loss for the first time. Fair enough, I thought, since it’d been running a bit over expectations so far. As October ended I was up 1049 units – an ROI of +6,7%. My overall goal is +5%.

Portfolio stats
The development of the portfolio so far

December came and brought the first bigger loss of the year (-154 units) and as January started I was hoping for a quick recovery. It didn’t happen. It actually got worse. All the so far reliable horse tipsters seemed to have found their worse run in history at the same time and football results were basically a joke (see previous post for one example out of many). I didn’t seem to be able to hit the most obvious targets.

This is basically where I am now – down 298 units in January. Fighting my way back, but January is already the worst month in the brief history of this portfolio and I’m still struggling. Things are getting a bit less ridiculuous though and I’m expecting things to normalize any day. Hopefully I’ll be able to reduce the January damage before the month ends. Not many days left though.

My current ROI, counting from April 2015, is +2.53% so I have a long way back to reaching my goal at 5%. The funny part is this is more or less what I’d expected it would be running this portfolio, but I’m very happy the upturn came before the downturn.

Full stats always available at bettin.gs/samuelericson/stats.

Result per tipster

Football

Fink Tank: +4.52%

Football Investor: -18.04%

Winabobatoo: -1.83%

American Sports

ProComputerGambler: +0.48%

Horse Racing

Mystery Tipster: +9.54%

Northern Monkey Punter: +12.17%

Jason James: +25.6%

Master Racing Tipster: +25.28%

Perfect example

Before I get into the current status of the portfolio, here’s the perfect example of how things are going. Today I was potentially having two away  bets from my football systems: Millwall v Port Vale and Oxford United v Bristol Rovers. My odds limit for the bets to match two systems were at 5,20 for Port Vale and 4,10 for Rovers and none of them were matched at lunchtime. The games later ended with a nice Rovers win while Port Vale got a solid beating.

When I checked my results later on, naturally the Port Vale bet was matched while the Rovers one was not. Now, if this game was played in September, it would probably have been the opposite, but that’s about how things are going for the moment. Instead of  30 units up, I’m on 8,5 units down.

There are ups and there are downs, and right now I’m further down than ever before.

Here we go

Allright, the blog is up. The goal with it is primarily to help myself to get some ideas off my chest and to share my experiences as a semi-professional investor in sport markets.

You’ll be able to read more about my background and the portfolio soon on the dedicated pages. Until then, let me just introduce myself by saying I’m running the Bettin.gs service, helping people keeping track of their bets since 2014. This blog is in part a result of that, where I follow the services that I’ve learnt are profitable by tracking the bets from these services.

I’m gonna start with a short write-up of the current status of the portfolio shortly and I’m greatful for all the feedback and input I can get. The portfolio is never done, always in beta, so changes can and will happen.

Here we go!