Updates in the portfolio

Considering the results for the last 12 months, it was clear that something had to be done. Taking bad luck and bad runs into account wasn’t enough to explain the poor performance from too many tipsters in the portfolio and considering the time I put in to follow them all it was far from worth it.

So, I’ve made some changes.

Tipsters out

Scottish Football Bets

The results have been decent this season (+2.7% ROI), but the service doesn’t really suit me. It relies too much on low odds bets for my liking and really taking advantage of them requires multiples and therefore access to several soft books, which I don’t have.

Festival Value Service

An oldie but no more a goldie in the portfolio, since the returns (-4.1% ROI) haven’t really lived up to expectations in a long time and my overall strategy to take a break with horse racing makes this one a no-no going forward.

BetNimble

I find this service hard to get my head around really. While they keep beating the closing odds at almost 70% of the time, they’ve either been extremely unlucky lately with their -14.1% ROI or there’s something else going on. I almost broke the betting bank here and with their focus on English football there’s enough overlap with other tipsters that make it reasonable to skip it in the portfolio from now on. I will continue to monitor their results closely though.

Update: BetNimble recently decided to shut down their service, so I guess we’ll never know the true quality of the service. They refunded all yearly payments as stated in their terms though, so fair play to them.

Football Elite

Abandoning Football elite doesn’t make any real impact since the season bets have already been posted, but I won’t include it in the portfolio in the future since I don’t like locking up parts of the betting bank for so long.

Golf Betting Expert

This was definitely the easiest tipster to kick out. After a year of overall poor results where he tried to go PGA only, but gave that one up, got in a dispute with Betting Gods, changed his strategy several times, started a new service on a new tipster platform and being all over the place, but still without making profits. I’m yet to see if I’ll add another golf tipster.

You can see my entire portfolio over here. With fewer tipster and lower odds I’m expecting less volatility and less work but nevertheless more profits. These changes were made mid-February and I hope I’ll have the time to come back soon with an update on how it feels and works out.

A closer look at: Master Racing Tipster

In these articles I’ll try to explain a little deeper the good and the bad about the tipsters I follow, why it’s the portfolio and how I think about keeping them in the future.

Master Racing Tipster

First off is Master Racing Tipster, part of the Betting Gods network.

This service has been part of my portfolio since September 2015 and has during this time become one of the cornerstones in it. Apart from a losing streak during last spring it’s been easy going all the way.

It took a while for me to figure out how to maximize the results from his tips and the info that comes with them, which probably has affected the profits that could have been bigger. Now I feel very confident in how to use the information, though. I won’t go into details here, as you probably need to figure out a strategy that works for yourself, but it’s no rocket science.

Over this period of time, he has delivered a healthy ROI of +8,37% from no less than 839 bets. The strike rate has been 26,1% and the average odds for all those bets are 5,28.

The 221,67 units of profit gives us a ROC (Return on Capital) of +148% based on the 150 units bank I have dedicated for this tipster.All in all, these are numbers that I’m very satisfied with, but they could – and maybe should – be even better if I’d know the upsides and downsides from the start. But that’s how things work and why it’s fundamentally important to keep the long-term view.

First, it takes time to actually know if the tipster’s any good. Then, it takes time to maximize the profits by adjusting stakes, timing and other practicalities. This often why Bettin.gs is such an invaluable tool for me. It lets me analyze odds intervals and trends and compare the progress to other services.

The good

The results speak for themselves really. An ROI of over +8% based on that number of bets makes it a service with a proven value and I’m planning to keep this service for a long time forward.

The service is very reliable and consistent, with emails being sent and structured at the same way at more or less the same time every day.

Practicalities

The tips come via email every night before the race, which means you do need to have your strategy clear if you plan to keep your bookie accounts unrestricted. Myself, I’m using exchanges only and it’s not always that easy to get on the advices odds, but I’ve found a way that works for me.

If you do manage to get the price advised, the returns will be quite a bit higher. Following the adviced odds would mean an ROI of over +30% according to the official stats (all historic bets and results are available to the public).

Summary

  • Extremely reliable service
  • Great results
  • Might not always get on the odds advised
  • Easy to follow
  • Absolutely part of my portfolio for a long time to come

More details and officiell information is available at Betting Gods.

Another detailed review is now also available at Tipster.Reviews.

New tipster

After 1 month of trials, I’m ready to get Premier Greyhound Tips into the portfolio. The results have been impressive and I’m curious to get another sport into the portfolio, for two reasons:

  1. It seems good enough to pay 7-10% ROI, the selections are sent on predictable times together with decent reasoning.
  2. I need more sports to try out for Bettin.gs. To keep the service quality up, I need to use as many of the functions and services as all other users do, so this covers another angle of that. Greyhound markets are already available at Bettin.gs of course.

I have another tipster on trial, as I’ve mentioned before, but need another month of verifying the service before getting on for real. They’ve had a real dip during September.

September review coming up shortly, by the way.

Update: There’s a more detailed review available at Tipster.Reviews.

ProComputerGambler changes

I went through the results of ProComputerGambler lately and at a closer look I could find no value in keeping following the email picks blindly at the current point. NBA and NHL has been a lottery the last months and NFL has winded down for the season. I gave up college sports some time ago, which leaves me with MLB, which I do want to follow and got decent results from last year following PCG. It’s just not enough to continue following the email picks, which is all I’ve been doing so far.

Your stats | Bettin.gs
ProComputerGambler results last year

40 units up, which is pretty much what it was on after the first month.

What I’ll do, is to focus 100% on the Raw numbers that PCG provides and evaluate after that time. If you have no clue what I’m talking about, you can read more about “Raw numbers” here.

Will also keep an eye on it via SBC, who is proofing his bets, of course.