2019 in review

It was a strange year betting wise, a year that is a bit hard to draw any bigger conclusions from. I made some costly mistakes, I also made a lot of money before I eventually lost them again.

The whole year ended just below break-even and considering the time I’ve put in to register the 3903 bets during the year, it was a lousy hourly rate.

As you can see in the graph below (which is fetched automatically from Bettin.gs by the way), the first quarter of the year made almost all of the profits while the rest of the year was a struggle.

What went right?

Well, hats off to two of my long time fighters Nishi Kori and On The Oche, who managed to end up on +7.6% and +4.6% ROI respectively. While for OTO that’s actually a bit below the expected level, it’s nice to see them both in profit for another year. 312 units in from Nishi and 29.6 units from On The Oche.

It’s also nice to see two newcomers deliver instantly. DD Pronostics sits at a +7.3% ROI from his first 286 bets and motaliz is at +5.6% ROI after he was added late in 2019, so just 42 bets from him so far.

What went wrong?

Quite a few things to be honest. I made two huge mistakes that are two key takeaways from 2019:

  • I jumped on the The Betting Man bandwagon without properly tracking and analyzing his bets personally.
  • I invested too much in Clear Data Sports baseball bets after one season of trialing the service, but without doing it thoroughly enough.

When it comes to The Betting Man, I made the rookie mistake to trial it for a couple of months, then getting right on board after what probably was a hot streak and then paying the price when his picks returned to normal levels, which seem to be losing ones. I stopped following his bets in October and was down -83.3 units (-4.2% ROI). According to RacingProofing.com he might be on his way back, but I don’t feel comfortable following his tips and that’s a good enough reason for me to get off.

For Clear Data Sports, the amount of bets that was produced was enormous. In hindsight it’s a bit hard to believe they can actually find so many weaknesses in one of the betting world’s toughest markets, but in in fact the service’s official numbers made a couple of units profit for the year eventually. My problem was that I didn’t quite catch the recommended odds at all bets and with a high volume service like that, that shows on the bottom line: -94.6 units (-7.8% ROI). I followed from the season started in March until June, just before the all-star break and I’m still following the service, but struggling to find a best way to take advantage of it.

2019 in numbers

2019 in numbers

I placed 3906 bets, so just above 10 a day. This will decrease in 2020 since I don’t place horse racing or baseball bets anymore.

2162 of the bets has been placed with Sportmarket and 1335 with Betfair. A very small amount of the bets were placed with soft bookies, particularly darts bets and a sporadic double.

The average odds ended at 12.54, but is just a bit inflated by the golf picks and will be reduce a bit in 2020 without the horse racing. Unless I find another golf tipster of course…

The strike rate of 36.4% will logically increase a bit as well.

Of all the bets that I’ve registered closing odds for, I beat 54.1% of them. I don’t have a target, but I aim much higher that this.

A tough time for horse racing?

It seemed like many of the tipsters had a rough year and when listening to other punters if seems like they weren’t the only ones. Especially horse racing tipsters with a positive result for 2019 seems hard to find and the only one I followed during 2019, Festival Value Service, ended -35 units (-4.1% ROI). I won’t keep it in the portfolio going forward, which leaves me totally empty from horse racing tipsters for the first time in a long while. I do have a few bew services on my radar, but I honestly can’t see myself following any of them any time soon.

Master Racing Tipster was also with me for 129 bets in 2019 before suddenly closing shops. He was then down -41.2 units (-9.7% ROI), so good riddance I guess, but sad to see him go after several fine years in the portfolio.

Better football times are coming?

My portfolio has turned quite football heavy lately, which I don’t mind since that’s the sport I know the most about numbers and bettingwise. In 2019 I started following BetNimble and while they ended -25 units (-3.5% ROI), they usually crush the closing odds, which make me feel comfortable having them in the portfolio for 2020 as well.

Fut Unver actually had a losing year and I’m really interested to see what 2020 brings there. He has a solid history, but without beating the closing line much of the time. Fingers crossed.

Winabobatoo marches on without making much noise. -15.7 units (-12.5% ROI) from just 31 bets in 2019 and then there’s also Football Elite‘s season bets that will be settled come spring time. (We’re on a nice bet in February as well with Leicester to win the English league cup, so it could show something already in February, jinx, jinx).

When it comes to Scottish Football Bets, I’m not so sure though. His betting style with low odds and multiples doesn’t really fit me and while his long analyses are sometimes interesting, I can’t really be bothered with 1500 words on a 1.4 odds selection. We’ll see. As long as he’s profitable, it’s probably worth it. He was -16.4 units (-1.4% ROI) in 2019 though.

Just a quick mention of Pro Footy Tips as well, who managed to provide 31 tips with lousy results (-61.2 units, -59% ROI) after switching to another platform and then disappearing again. No recommended behaviour.

More golfers to be added?

My only golf tipster, Golf Betting Expert, had a dispute with his partners at Betting Gods which made him go solo. Those kind of things can never be good I think, but I still follow his service despite that and the fact that he was -20.2 units (-2.3% ROI) last year.

I am looking to add another golfer though, since I see both potential and have a big interest in following the sport. The trouble, as always, is to find a reliable, profitable service to follow though. I have a few candidates lined up, so to be continued…

Summary

Here’s a total summary for all tipsters that I followed in 2019. A year that will probably be beaten by 2020 by a margin if everything goes as planned.

Here's a total summary for all tipsters that I followed in 2019.
A total summary for all tipsters that I followed in 2019.

The portfolio in 2020

Going into 2020, here’s what the portfolio looks like in it’s full glory. Good luck to us!

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