Weekly review 15 Aug (-11.6 units)

I’m hoping for more live action from now on, with all the big leagues starting. Live betting has showned to be one of my personal strengths, especially in football. My theory is that it’s because football markets are analysed by the bookies to the point that it’s just getting too hard for punters to find the value in most cases. They’re getting too good basically. For pre-match betting I’ll rely mostly on Winabobatoo this season, who seems to have better data than the bookies in several fields. We’ll see.

For live betting I’m basically always relying on history and gut feeling based on the thousands of games I’ve watched in my life, making it easier to predict how the style of a match will change and what’s going to happen. This has shown to be successful so far, but I’m always looking for more fact based strategies to use in different situation. The strange thing though is I often find myself too much relying on data and pre-set strategies and I’m not sure that’s gonna do me too much good in the long run. I need to find a mix somehow.

For example, a strategy for expected high scoring games: Instead of going for over 2.5 goals pre-match, wait until minute 35-40 and go for over 1.5 goals if it’s still 0-0. You could get odds around 1.70 – 1.80. The idea here is that if one team scores, chances are high that the other team will go for the equaliser, opening up the game for goals at both ends. Should you have gone for over 2.5 it’s a little harder to get that last goals, since 1-1 might be a result that prevent the teams to go for another goal.

Anyway, I’m planing on writing separate posts for the strategies I use. That’s just quick thought.

On to the results this grey week: My golf tipster found a winner in John Deere championships, showing green again. Horse racing was dull all week with just Jason James hitting a double (I realised I still have my Unibet account to use for those), but other than that, it was a poor week. My live bets were basically break even, just an insurance bet on the golf that dragged the numbers down.

Weekly stats

Chasemaster is a new face in the portfolio, looking forward to see their progress.

On to the next one!

http://bettin.gs/samuelericson

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